(Photo opposite: Juan Carlos Varela) This past week the second largest political party in Panama, the Panamista Party, chose its candidate for the 2009 presidential election. Juan Carlos Varela will be the candidate for the 250,000 person strong Panamista Party. Other party leaders are beginning to congregate around Varela with the hope of building a strong party base for the 2009 election.

Outside of the Panamista Party people are asking themselves whether or not Varela can win a national election. He is not that well-known in Panama – though his family is well-known; they own the largest distillery in Panama. Election polls put Varela far behind the current top two candidates Ricardo Martinelli (#1) and Balbina Herrera (#2). Will Varlea be able to catch up to the leaders; this will depend on how well he can reach beyond his party base and pick up undecided voters.

The undecided voters for the 2009 election are mostly urban professionals who are either scared of Balbina Herrera because she is seen as too far left and too tied to the Noriega years, or are worried that Martinelli is too reckless. If voters turn away from the top two candidates because of their histories, then Varela could win in 2009.

In the end Varela is a long shot candidate: his lack of recognition and his need to challenge Martinelli for the rural vote – where Martinelli is very strong – make his climb to the presidency a difficult one.

In the 2009 election the rural vote will not be with the party currently in power. Rural voters are upset with the current government because of increasing prices, high corruption and the large influx of foreigners entering the country: foreigners are seen as driving prices up and fueling corruption. Martinelli and Varela will battle it out for who can best tap into discontented voters in the countryside. The latest poll conducted by the national daily newspaper, La Prensa, has Martinelli in first place – the first poll to place him as the front runner. Martinelli’s party - Cambio Democrático - is a small party; its institutional roots do not run deep in Panamanian political soil; it’s a party that was created by Martinelli in 1998 for Martinelli. Will Martinelli’s success broaden the appeal of his party: that will have to happen if he hopes to win.

In the last three presidential elections in Panama – 1994, 1999, and 2004 – the presidential winners were all from the two major parties – the PRD and the Panamista party. Martinelli is the first presidential candidate to be a front-runner without a strong party to back him up. Third party candidates have done well lately in Latin American countries where discontent is running high. For example, Ottón Solis was a successful third party candidate in the Costa Rican presidential elections of 2006; Solis almost beat a popular ex-president, Oscar Arias, in 2006. For Martinelli to win the 2009 election, he needs to keep speaking directly to the discontented voter. Because discontent is growing very quickly in Panama, especially among the middle and lower class voters who have not really benefited from the real estate boom or large amounts of foreign investment. Remember in Panama, only about 4% of the population makes more than $1000 a month.

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