(Photo opposite: Panama’s official Presidential residence: Palacio de las Garzas) As the 2009 Panamanian presidential election approaches, and as the presidential candidates campaign across the country, a lot of people are wondering what it will take for one of the candidates to pull ahead of the pack and become the next president. The answer to that question really depends on the candidate, specifically the candidate’s background, the candidate’s ideology, the candidate’s social class, and the candidate’s party. But even more important than background, class, ideology, and party, to the average Panamanian voter is whether or not the candidate understands their particular Panamanian reality. And since Panama is a society in which there are such extreme differences in class and ethnic identity, it can be hard for the candidates to find the pulse of the voter. Most candidates will first try to be popular with the people.
And the first way to be a populist in Panamanian politics is to eat and drink like the masses. Eating traditional foods like mondongo and guarapo will make the voter think you are one of them – if you have seconds even more so. Eating traditional Panamanian food is very important to the middle and lower class voters because they believe eating certain foods makes you Panamanian. To be a populist you also need to let the voter know you can make money; you need to be rich for both the upper and lower classes: the upper class wants you to understand their important role and the lower classes want you to be their champion.
After a candidate establishes his/her popularity with the masses they can start carving out the voters they need to win. Road building has become a very important way of winning votes in Panamanian elections. Promising to build roads to remote rural communities or expanding roads in the cities has been a very effective way of appealing to different regions. Another way to appeal to voters is to promise to improve the infrastructure of communities, especially water systems. Lot’s of people in the greater Panama City area no longer have water 24/7 water in their homes: if you could bring that back as president you would win lots of votes. Another way of appealing to voters is to improve the public transportation system. Since I started living in Panama different candidates have talked about improving public transportation, but none have ever been able to implement a plan that would phase out the current system of transportation: one of the most powerful voting blocs are bus owners.
All of the factors mentioned above will play a role in who will win the presidency in May 2009. Let’s take a look at what each candidate needs to do in order to win:
Balbina Herrera: Balbina needs to play two important cards which on the surface look quite contradictory. She needs to be popular with the urban middle and lower classes, which make up her most important voting block, but she also needs to let the upper classes know she can be their president as well. Balbina is the one candidate who is looking up rather than down: her support among the lower classes is strong; she needs to win over the business class and upper class to win. Her ideology is leftist, her background is in the 1968 revolution, her class is from the lower to middle class and her political party is the PRD, the biggest in the country. For her to win she needs to look as if she is moving to the right, is moving into the upper class and finally wants reforms not revolution. Will everyone fit under her umbrella is a question that a lot of Panamanians and outsiders are asking.
Ricardo Martinelli: For Martinelli to win he needs to do what he has been doing so far: appealing to the lower and middle classes by appearing to be one of them. This is something that Martinelli has been doing for a couple of years now: his campaign message is pure populism. He has attacked the PRD party by saying that they’ve had the reins of government for years and have done nothing for the country: that kind of attack works in an election year. Martinelli is the candidate for those who don’t want to vote for the PRD party. What Martinelli needs to worry about is that his support is wider than it is deep: his political party is very small and he should be worried that his support might be a little softer than the polls suggest. Martinelli’s ideology is centrist, his background is business, he is from the upper class, and his party is Cambio Democrático. Everyone is waiting to see if Martinelli will stay on message, increase his popularity and win the presidency: right now he seems to have the lead.
Juan Carlos Varela: This is Varela’s first run at the presidency and so far he has kept himself in the race. He could still win the presidency. To win he has to hope that somehow Martinelli’s campaign will run off the tracks; if that happens, Varela will be in a position to pick up all those independent voters that presently are leaning towards Martinelli. It’s hard to see how Varela can win if Martinelli doesn’t implode. However, Varela is in an excellent position to negotiate an alliance with Martinelli since his political party – the Panameñista Party – has lots of strong supporters, especially in the countryside. Varela’s ideology is centrist/business, his background is in business, he is from the upper class, and his party is the Panameñista Party, the second largest in the country. Varela could have a very pivotal position to play in this election, especially if Martinelli’s campaign shows signs of weakening. How he plays his cards could decide the outcome of the election. He’s a long shot to win, but he may end up as Kingmaker.
Ranking Panama’s Presidents
I decided to rank the presidents since 1940 as I wasn’t able to dig up that much information on the presidents that came before 1940. I’ve not included the puppet presidents that were in power during the military years. So that means that all the presidents from 1969 to 1989 have not been included: I’ve only ranked the presidents that were democratically elected. There were elections in the 1980s but almost all of the elections under the Noriega regime were fixed and therefore the presidents were subservient to the military. I also have not included the current government of Martin Torrijos because it has not completed its time in office.
1. Roberto F. Chiari (1960-1964) – Chiari was president during the 1964 Canal Zone riots when 21 Panamanians were killed: the second worse episode in U.S.-Panamanian relations. Chiari had the guts to formally break relations with the U.S. The break lasted 8 months and sent a message to the U.S. government that Panama would not accept the U.S. presence in Panama forever. It was at this point that the U.S. knew it would eventually need to leave Panama. Chiari was elected in 1960 in a clean election and ran a clean and effective government.
2. Ernesto De la Guardia (1956-1960) - De la Guardia is often called the cleanest president Panama ever had. He was also a very important president because he marked the transition from the military president of Remon (1952-1955) to civilian democracy. He also survived a coup attempt by Roberto Arias (Margot Fonteyn’s husband) which may or may not have been instigated by Fidel Castro. De la Guardia initiated a period in which the military and civilian politicians worked with one another rather than competing for power with one another.
3. Arnulfo Arias (1940-41) - Arias had a couple of turns as president but it was in his first term that he built his legacy. He introduced a new constitution in 1941, he gave women the right to vote and he introduced social security, and public health care. This was the high point for Arias as president; after this, his presidencies would do more damage than good.
4. Guillermo Endara (1990-1994) - Endara was president after the U.S. invasion of Panama, the worse episode in U.S.-Panamanian relations. Endara’s government was weak and indecisive and he was unable to change the military constitution of 1972 or defeat the PRD party (the party of the military) in the 1994 elections. Despite all of that Endara did get the economy of Panama moving forward and he did at the end bring some stability to the country. He left the country in the black which helped his successors.
5. Jose Remon (1952-1955) – A former military man who became a very popular president in Panama. Remon introduced many progressive social reforms to the countryside and he did try to lessen corruption in military. He was assassinated at the horse track which is named after him. The assassination has never been completely resolved.
6. Mireya Moscosco (1999-2004) – Moscosco was the first female president of Panama and there were lots of expectations that as a woman she would bring something different, something better to the presidency. Her government had its corruption scandals and Moscosco was often more interested in being a celebrity than a president. The economy from 1999 to 2002 was very weak under her presidency. Most people say Moscosco was a president for the rural people in Panama, particularly the rural areas in the province of Los Santos around her hometown of Pedasi.
7. Ernesto Perez Balladares (1994-1999) - Balladares government had its scandals but his most damaging political decision was to hold a referendum to change the constitution so he could run for another term as president: he lost decisively in the referendum. His privatization program for the most part turned out to be a success, though telephone service skyrocketed in price during his time as president. He also did not attend the transfer of power from his government to the succeeding government. Very few people today talk about his presidency.
8. Marcos Robles (1964-1968) – Elected in a dirty election, Robles was not a very honest president. He used the position of president to enrich friends. He was also not able to resolve the status of the Panama Canal after the 1964 riots. He was impeached in 1968 for helping his candidate in the 1968 election and only held onto power because the head of the military stood by him. Robles was president during the horrible 1968 elections when corruption and violence engulfed the country. Robles left the country for Miami hours before the incoming president – Arnulfo Arias - was inaugurated: he never returned to Panama and died in 1991.
* More Articles on Living in Panama
* Real Estate in Panama
* Banks in Panama - Worldwide Banking Directory
* Universities in Panama - Colleges & Universities listed by Country
* Embassies and Consulates of Panama
